I am a researcher and doctoral student at the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis at the Research Center (Forschungszentrum) Karlsruhe, Germany. Since January 2008, I'm visiting with Professor Scott Armstrong at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Business School.
In my dissertation, which is supervised by Prof. Christof Weinhardt at the chair for Information and Market Engineering at the University of Karlsruhe, I'm comparing prediction markets to traditional judgmental forecasting methods, in particular prediction markets and the Delphi method. I'm also running the Special Interest Group on Prediction Markets at forecastingprinciples.com.
The 
Polly is interested in forecasting the percent of the two-party vote going to the incumbents, the Republican candidate (whoever that might turn out to be). Her procedure is to average across four forecasting methods (polls, the IEM prediction market, quantitative models, and her own Experts Panel).
