I am a researcher at the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany. From January 2008 to December 2009, I was visiting with Professor Scott Armstrong at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Business School.
I received my PhD in Economics (summa cum laude) from the University of Karlsruhe (Germany) and a diploma (German equivalent to a master's degree) in Economics as well as a diploma in Business Informatics (Wirtschaftsinformatik) from the University of Regensburg (Germany). Between 2001 and 2002 I also studied for two semesters at the University of Zurich (Switzerland).
I have published a number of research articles (including papers in the International Journal of Forecasting, BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, IEEE Pervasive Computing, Futures, and the Journal of Prediction Markets) and presented my work in several talks. My research focus is on the development of new forecasting methods that are simple to use, easy to understand, and thus can aid decision-making in the real world. Reports of my research have appeared in New Scientist, Deutsche Welle, Süddeutsche Zeitung, SZ Wissen, and n-tv.
Together with Alfred Cuzán, Randy Jones, and Scott Armstrong, I am taking care of Polly, our parrot that does such a good job in forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections. Polly can be visited at www.pollyvote.com. I am also responsible for the Special Interest Group on Prediction Markets at forecastingprinciples.com.
