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PollyIssues

Together with Scott Armstrong, I'm working on a model to predict the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections based on how voters perceive the candidates to deal with the issues facing the country. For 2008, our model predicts Barack Obama to win, with a vote-share of 52.5%. The work has already achieved some media attention, particularly in Germany.

Further information can be found here.

Last Updated ( Saturday, 22 November 2008 21:54 )
 

PollyVote – Forecasting the US Presidential Election

Polly is interested in forecasting the percent of the two-party vote going to the incumbents, the Republican candidate (whoever that might turn out to be). Her procedure is to average across four forecasting methods (polls, the IEM prediction market, quantitative models, and her own Experts Panel).

Further information can be found on PollyVote.com.

Last Updated ( Tuesday, 28 October 2008 18:32 )
 

Special Interest Group on Prediction Markets

IIF logoThe marketsforforecasting.com Special Interest Group on prediction markets at forecastingprinciples.com has been established as a platform for researchers and practitioners who are interested in the field of prediction markets.
Last Updated ( Saturday, 22 November 2008 21:55 )
 

PerCoMed - Pervasive Computing in Medical Care

ITAS, FZI and IZT analyze the chances and risks of Pervasive Computing for health care in an interdisciplinary approach

Researchers of ITAS, FZI and IZT carry out a research project to analyze the chances and risks that emerge for actors in health care from implementations of the so-called Pervasive Computing. The goal of the project is to analyse the needs for action and to develop options.

The constant and ubiquitous availability of tiny mobile systems that are networked with each other is among the currently most discussed developments in information and communications technology. As Pervasive Computing is already an important and highly relevant field of scientific research for science, applications are now spreading widely introduced in business and services, too.

logo_percomed

The field of application for the first case study is the use of the so-called "Stroke Angel" system, which supports emergency medical services and hospitals in the medical care of acute stroke patients. Of particular importance for the recovery of patients is thereby the time from the first occurrence of symptoms to the beginning of the therapy. The common guideline "time is brain" in stroke care emphasizes the relevance of saving time and improvement of the quality of medical care. The “Stroke Angel” system promises to significantly reduce this time span.

At the end of the project a generalisation of the results will show drivers for implementation, potentials of innovation, but also barriers and social concerns that exist in the individual case and in the general use of innovative pervasive technologies. Thereupon options for action are created for providers of services in the health sector as well as for decision makers in policy, economy and science.

Further information is found on www.percomed.de.

Last Updated ( Tuesday, 28 October 2008 18:31 )
 

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