Forecasting the 2008 Election with the Pollyvote
with J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred Cuzán, and Randall J. Jones Jr
Foresight - The International Journal of Forecasting 2009 (12), 41-42.
At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket’s share of the two-party vote would be 47.0%. The outcome was close at 46.6% (as of the end of November). The success of the Pollyvote should further enhance interest is this approach to forecasting.
