Talks

Upcoming     Invited     Conference presentations

Upcoming

  1. Graefe, A., Haim, M. & Diakopoulos, N. (2017). Effects of algorithmic transparency on perceptions of automated news. Annual Meeting of the International Communication Association, San Diego, USA, May 25.29.

Invited

  1. Graefe, A. (2017). PollyVote.com – Automatisierter Journalismus am Beispiel von Wahlberichterstattung , Vortragsreihe „Digitale Welten“, Macromedia University, April 25.
  2. Graefe, A. (2017). Assessing the Accuracy of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Forecasts. The U.S. Elections of 2016: Domestic and International Aspects, IDC Herzliya, Israel, January 8-9.
  3. Graefe, A. (2016). Prognosen der U.S. Präsidentschaftswahl 2016. Eine Fehleranalyse. SZ große Blattkritik, München, December 19.
  4. Graefe, A. (2016). How to predict an election? TEDx, Munich, November 13.
  5. Graefe, A. (2016).Can I believe my Crystal Ball : Predictive journalism next? Annual conference about new practices in journalism (NPDJ), Sciences Po University, Paris, November 28.
  6. Graefe, A. (2016). Medien und künstliche Intelligenz. Wie sieht die Zukunft aus?, Medientage München, October 26.
  7. Graefe, A. (2016). Computational Campaign Coverage for Democratic elections: The PollyVote project, University Days, Macromedia Hochschule, October 17.
  8. Graefe, A. (2016) Change Up Your 2016 Election Coverage. Create a Computational Campaign, ONA 2016, Denver, CO, September 15-17.
  9. Graefe, A. The PollyBot: Computational Coverage of the 2016 US election, Tow Center for Digital Journalism, Columbia University, New York City, September 13.
  10. Graefe, A. (2016). Can a robot do my job? Understanding the growing trends in the world of computational journalism. International Journalism Festival, Perugia, Italy, April 6-10.
  11. Graefe, A. (2016). The Transition to Digital Journalism, Digital humanities: How to be human in the digital age. Four panel discussions, Palais des Beaux-Arts, Brussels, Belgium, February 24.
  12. Graefe, A. (2016). Guide to automated journalism. Associated Press, New York City, January 7th.
  13. Graefe, A. (2015). Smart Services und CRM. Zukunft verstehen. Literaturhaus München, Einführung der Sky Stiftungsprofessur CRM an der Hochschule Macromedia, 15 October, 2015.
  14. Graefe, A. & Haim, M. (2015). Achtung, automatisierter Artikel! Medientage München, 22 October, 2015.
  15. Graefe, A. (2014). Accuracy of vote expectation surveys in forecasting elections. POQ Special Issue Conference, American Association for Public Opinion Research, Washington D.C.
  16. Graefe, A. (2013). Status quo in election forecasting, Bavarian Ministry of the Interior, Munich.
  17. Graefe, A. (2013). The PollyVote project for forecasting elections – Lessons learned and future plans, University of Bern.
  18. Graefe, A. (2012). Who will win the U.S. presidential election? The forecast of PollyVote.com, Center for Advanced Studies, LMU Munich.
  19. Graefe, A., & Armstrong, J. S. (2010). Forecasting elections from voters perceptions of candidates’ positions on issues. Conference on Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Science Perspective, University of Bucharest, Romania.
  20. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J. J., & Cuzán, A. G. (2010). Combining forecasts for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. Conference on Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Science Perspective, University of Bucharest, Romania.
  21. Weinhardt, C., & Graefe, A. (2009). Konjunkturprognosebörse – Ein Baustein kombinierter Prognosen. Workshop „Neue Verfahren der Kurzfristprognose“, Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi), Berlin.
  22. Graefe, A. (2009). Methoden für Wahlvorhersagen – Das PollyVote Projekt zur Vorhersage der U.S. Präsidentschaftswahlen. „Young Talents – Science and Music“ Lecture Series, Helmholtz Center Karlsruhe.
  23. Graefe, A., & Armstrong, J. S. (2009). Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates. Symposium on Leadership and Individual Differences, University of Lausanne.
  24. Graefe, A. (2008). PollyVote – Forecasting the US Presidential Election. Opening ceremony for the „Karlsruhe House of Young Scientists“, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.
  25. Graefe, A. (2008). Harnessing collective knowledge – Use Markets to improve your forecasts. Forecasting Summit, Boston.

Conference presentations

  1. Graefe, A. & Armstrong, J. S. Forecasting the presidential election based on candidates‘ biographies and perceived issue-handling competence, APSA 2016 – Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA, September 1-4.
  2. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Randall J. Jones, Jr., & Cuzan, Alfred G. Combining forecasts for US presidential elections. PollyVote’s advances since 2004, APSA 2016 – Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, PA, September 1-4.
  3. Graefe, A., Haim, M., Haarmann, B. & Brosius, H.-B. Readers‘ perception of computer-written news: Credibility, expertise, and readability. ICA 2016 – Annual Conference of the International Communication Association, Fukuoka, Japan, June 9-13, 2016.
  4. Graefe, A. & Brosius, H.-B. The burst of the bubble? Effects of automated personalization on news diversity.. Paper in the panel „Pushed into chambers? Prioritization and personalization of online information and its effects on public opinion formation“ at the ICA 2016 – Annual Conference of the International Communication Association, Fukuoka, Japan, June 9-13, 2016.
  5. Haim, M. & Graefe, A. Automated news: Better than expected?. ICA 2016 – Annual Conference of the International Communication Association, Fukuoka, Japan, June 9-13, 2016.
  6. Graefe, A., Haim, M., Hartmann, B. & Brosius, H-B. (2015). Perception of Automated Computer-Generated News: Credibility, Expertise, and Readability, Dubrovnik Media Days.
  7. Haim, M., Goodwin, B. & Graefe, A. (2015). A classification of technological advances in journalism. IAMCR, Montreal.
  8. Oechslein, O., Haim, M., Graefe, A., Hess, T., Brosius, H.-B. & Koslow, A. (2015). The digitization of news aggregation: Experimental evidence on intention to use and willingness to pay for personalized news aggregators. Proceedings of the 48th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, IEEE Computer Society, 4181-4190.
  9. Graefe, A., Küchenhoff, H., Stierle V. & Riedl, B. (2014). Combining Forecasts: Evidence on the relative accuracy of the simple average and Bayesian Model Averaging for predicting social science problems. ECPR General Conference, Glasgow.
  10. Graefe, A. (2014). Naïve models for forecasting U.S. presidential elections: Thirty years later. APSA Annual Meeting, Washington D.C.
  11. Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., & Green, K. C. (2014). Improving U.S. presidential election forecasts: A test of the Golden Rule of Forecasting. APSA Annual Meeting, Washington D.C.
  12. Graefe, A. (2014). Improving forecasts using equally weighted predictors. SPSA Annual Conference, New Orleans.
  13. Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Graefe, A. (2014). Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative. International Symposium on Forecasting, Rotterdam.
  14. Armstrong, J. S., Rui, D., Green, K. C. & Graefe, A. (2014). Predictive validity of evidence-based advertising principles. Annual Meeting of the International Communication Association, Seattle.
  15. Graefe, A., Küchenhoff, H., Stierle V. & Riedl, B. (2014). Combining Forecasts: Evidence on the relative accuracy of the simple average and Bayesian Model Averaging for predicting social science problems. International Symposium on Forecasting, Rotterdam.
  16. Armstrong, J. S., & Graefe, A. (2013). Index models for advising candidates: Status quo and future plans. APSA Annual Meeting, Chicago.
  17. Graefe, A. (2013). Accuracy of vote expectation surveys in forecasting elections. APSA Annual Meeting, Chicago.
  18. Graefe, A. (2013). Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections. SPSA Annual Conference, Orlando.
  19. Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Graefe, A. (2013). Golden rule of forecasting. International Symposium on Forecasting, Seoul.
  20. Graefe, A. (2013). Accuracy of vote expectation surveys in forecasting elections. International Symposium on Forecasting, Seoul.
  21. Graefe, A. (2013). Accuracy of vote expectation surveys in forecasting elections. Annual Meeting of the International Communication Association, London.
  22. Graefe, A. (2013). Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections. Annual Meeting of the International Communication Association, London.
  23. Graefe, A., & Haas, A. (2013). The value of aggregate online search behavior for forecasting and decision-making. Annual Meeting of the International Communication Association, London.
  24. Graefe, A., Jacquart, P., & Poutvaara, P. (2013). A face for politics. International Symposium on Forecasting, Seoul.
  25. Graefe, A. (2012). Personality and the vote in U.S. presidential elections. 3rd International Summer School on Political Communication and Electoral Behavior, Milan.
  26. Graefe, A., & Armstrong, J. S. (2012). Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections. International Symposium on Forecasting, Boston.
  27. Armstrong, J. S., Graefe, A., & Patnaik, S. (2011). Predicting the effectiveness of advertisements: A validation test of the index method. International Symposium on Forecasting, Prague.
  28. Cuzán, A. G., Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., & Jones, R. J. J. (2011). Combining within and across methods for greater accuracy in presidential elections forecasting. APSA Annual Meeting, Seattle.
  29. Graefe, A., & Armstrong, J. S. (2011). Who should be nominated to run in the 2012 presidential election? Long-term forecasts based on candidates’ biographies. APSA Annual Meeting, Seattle.
  30. Graefe, A. (2008). Can you beat the market? Accuracy of individual and group post-prediction market judgments. INFORMS Annual Meeting, Washington, DC.
  31. Graefe, A., Luckner, S., & Weinhardt, C. (2007). Using markets to forecast the future. International Conference on Organisational Foresight: Learning the Future Faster, Glasgow.
  32. Graefe, A., & Orwat, C. (2007). Information markets: An auspicious web-based technology for participatory decision-making. International Conference on Technology, Knowledge and Society, Cambridge, UK.
  33. Graefe, A., & Weinhardt, C. (2007). Aspects of information aggregation – A comparison of the Delphi method and prediction markets. International Symposium on Forecasting, New York.
  34. Graefe, A. (2007). Technologische Innovationen in der medizinischen Versorgung. Wo stehen wir? Wohin geht die Reise? MedicaMedia, Düsseldorf, Germany, 16 November, 2007.
  35. Graefe, A. (2006). Information markets as a participatory method for technology assessment. NTA2 – Second conference of the TA Network: Technology Assessment in World Society, Berlin.
  36. Graefe, A., Rashid, A., & Scheermesser, M. (2006). Einflüsse von aktuellen Trends und Stakeholderinteressen auf die Verbreitung von Pervasive Computing im Gesundheitswesen. Eine interdisziplinäre Betrachtung. Jahrestagung der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Medizinische Informatik, Biometrie und Epidemiologie, Leipzig.